NEW DELHI: The monsoon is unlikely to begin retreating from the country in the next 10 days or so, with two weather systems expected to deliver more rain in central India and many parts of the north during this period, weather department officials said on Tuesday.
The normal date of monsoon’s withdrawal, which begins from western Rajasthan, is just three days away (September 17), but the monsoon is far from done yet.
“Considering that active conditions are likely over the next several days, during which Rajasthan too will get rain, we are not expecting the monsoon to start withdrawing at least before September 23,” India Meteorological Department head Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told TOI.
In its official update last Thursday, IMD had said monsoon’s withdrawal was unlikely till September 16 in view of a “deep depression” forming over the Bay of Bengal, which later moved inland from Odisha on Sunday (September 12). Now, another system is expected to sweep in through north Odisha this weekend (around September 18), bringing more rain into central and north India.
This system expected to form over north Bay of Bengal would be the third circulation to invigorate the monsoon this month. In the first two weeks of September, India has received more than 30% surplus rain, halving the overall monsoon season deficit from 10% in late August to 5% till Tuesday.
The deep depression that had crossed Odisha on Sunday, currently lies over north Chhattisgarh. “It will move across Madhya Pradesh, causing heavy to very heavy rainfall over the state and adjoining areas in the next two days. Delhi-NCR is expected to receive moderate to heavy showers on Thursday. The system is likely to head towards south Rajasthan,” said R K Jenamani, senior weather forecaster at IMD’s national weather forecasting centre.
The active monsoon conditions this month, after August ended with a 24% deficit, coincide with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) moving into a position that’s normally favourable to the Indian summer monsoon. MJO is an eastward-travelling pulse of cloud and rain that impacts tropical weather systems across the globe.